Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 23.933808 26.075561 28.391697 31.094572 34.177452 37.602407 41.720614
2025-12-28 20.382127 23.279982 26.636578 30.859222 36.098124 42.478660 50.988716
2026-01-04 18.081270 21.399679 25.451439 30.863500 38.065194 47.569634 61.521679
2026-01-11 16.524811 20.124138 24.711899 31.156968 40.273480 53.216803 74.046447
2026-01-18 15.111665 18.815978 23.699902 30.846147 41.481455 57.564000 85.694194
2026-01-25 14.046958 17.826410 22.957644 30.741570 42.873934 62.340726 99.298206
2026-02-01 13.193152 17.024034 22.361480 30.725450 44.329312 67.422614 114.985752
2026-02-08 12.441897 16.287942 21.769056 30.609578 45.555711 72.299994 131.943070
2026-02-15 11.785572 15.627420 21.214280 30.464321 46.672744 77.165539 150.753981
2026-02-22 11.199038 15.020111 20.678452 30.272710 47.651531 81.941886 171.438812
2026-03-01 10.721849 14.537994 20.288577 30.268483 48.951258 87.647052 197.415124
2026-03-08 10.299344 14.107458 19.940323 30.288005 50.283110 93.728326 228.040033
2026-03-15 10.088674 13.999528 20.117058 31.286084 53.799567 106.041184 289.043918
2026-03-22 9.625631 13.470160 19.567178 30.912608 54.442941 111.596364 331.098343
2026-03-29 9.261673 13.075575 19.211946 30.863538 55.782853 119.444959 391.619243
2026-04-05 8.983612 12.800885 19.036929 31.135748 57.889033 130.199400 481.347353
2026-04-12 8.630499 12.383447 18.585256 30.816979 58.571613 137.026500 561.382161
2026-04-19 8.338298 12.049918 18.256614 30.709311 59.746695 145.907216 673.515364
2026-04-26 8.081360 11.760902 17.986460 30.691944 61.147389 156.180928 824.246014
2026-05-03 7.828154 11.464934 17.683900 30.575753 62.279522 166.067386 1006.593177
2026-05-10 7.588011 11.179228 17.381727 30.430529 63.316297 176.157893 1237.752134
2026-05-17 7.357219 10.898640 17.071832 30.239142 64.201483 186.169765 1529.144588
2026-05-24 7.165143 10.675911 16.856131 30.234893 65.623199 199.336972 1983.547958